Spring School, „Fit For 55“ packages modelling

Representatives of the OEaB, who deal with emission projections, took part in a working meeting, which was focused on the presentation of methodologies for assessing the impact of various policies, especially on energy and greenhouse gas emissions.

Spring School, „Fit For 55“ packages modelling

The meeting was held within the project of the research center SEEPIA (Center for Socio-Economic Research on the Impact of Environmental Policies). It is consortium of research organizations. Except of Slovakia, who participated in the event thanks to the cooperation with the Center for Environmental Protection of Charles University (COŽP UK) in Prague, other participating countries were Austria from the Austrian Energy Agency, the Umweltbundesamt and representatives of Cambridge Econometrics from Budapest.

"Fit-for-55" package with measures was presenting at the beginning of the meeting. The aim of the package is to steer the EU towards climate neutrality and the member states are forced to adopt strong and effective policies as soon as possible. The "REPower EU 2022" initiative was presented as well. It is a plan to help reduce dependence on the import of Russian fossil fuels as quickly as possible and with regard to the green renewal of the energy system.

Representatives of the Austrian Energy Agency presented scenarios for the transformation of the industry towards carbon neutrality. In the scenarios, various technologies were mentioned, which can be counted for the achievement towards to zero emissions. Technologies that have not yet been discovered, using a certain scale of probability that the technology could be discovered and implemented in the commercial sphere in a given segment were also used in model.

The representative of the Umweltbundesamt (UBA) presented the models and methodologies used for macroeconomic projections and emission projections. The measures included in the scenarios were based on the recommendations of a large group (about 20 people) of experts from the various concerned departments. Modeling of emission projections took place in a model based on Input-output balance tables.

Special attention was paid to the impact of the EU package "Fit-for-55" on the Czech Republic. Results of a different model were presented. Representative of Cambridge Econometrics presented the economic impacts of the package according to their E3ME macroeconomic model. A representative of Charles University spoke on the same topic, but with the CGE model, and finally another representative of Charles University presented the impact on the energy sector of the Czech Republic in the TIMES model. They presented various defined scenarios according to ETS1 and ETS2 prices, carbon duty, decline in fossil fuel consumption, various developments in fuel prices, etc.

The representatives of Slovakia presented the modeling approach in the TIMES model, the structure of the model, which so far includes a larger part of the energy sector and a part of industry. The approach to modeling in households was also briefly presented. Subsequently, the results of the analysis were presented, with technologies which can realistically be expected in SK industry in the near future with a focus on the production of ammonia, cement, glass, mineral wool or bricks also with possibility of using electricity or hydrogen in industrial production. As part of the discussion, the participants were interested in the mentioned technologies and plans, as well as some of our inputs.