Projections of fluorinated gas emissions, as a part of the Industrial Processes and Solvent Use sector emissions, are accounted for up to 2050.
Projections of F-Gases emissions were calculated based on the approved EU legislative - Regulation (EU) No 517/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 16 April 2014 on fluorinated greenhouse gases and repealing Regulation (EC) No 842/2006, Annex III as follow (Table 3.8).
F-Gases emission projections in the category 2.F were prepared according to two scenarios – WEM and WAM.
Emissions projections according to the WEM scenario were followed directly the above-mentioned EU Regulation, Annex III. It was assumed that the gas R404A (GWP 3922) will be replaced with the gases R448A (GWP 1387), R449A (GWP 1397) and R452A (2410). The gas 410A will be replaced with R452B (GWP 698) and the gas R134a will be replaced with the gas R513A (GWP 631). Except of MAC when it will be replaced with the gas R1234YF. Later the gases with the GWP higher than 750 will be replaced with gases with GWP 150.
Emissions projections according to the WAM scenario were following the above-mentioned EU Regulation and in addition with the requirement that gases with the zero GWP (or by the supplementary gases) should replace all refrigerants the after 2033.
SF6 and N2O emissions projections in the category 2.G were prepared according to WEM and WAM scenarios. Emissions projections of the SF6 in the WEM scenario were prepared by the extrapolation of the base year emissions (and considering time series consistency) with the assumption that the phase-out of obsolete equipment started. Emissions projections in the WAM scenario followed the restrictions on the utilisation of SF6 gas in the new equipment after 2025. Emissions projections of N2O in the category 2.G.3 were prepared according to extrapolated trend of the last 10 years (WEM). In the WAM scenario, a gradual replacement of N2O in anaesthesia was assumed.
F-gas projections include emissions of PFCs (aluminium production), HFCs (use of refrigerators and air conditioners) and SF6 (electronics production). They currently account for a relatively significant share but are projected to decrease significantly. The trends according to the WEM and WAM scenarios are provided on the Figure.