Projections of greenhouse gases emissions and air pollutants from the household sector are balanced until 2055. More information on emission projections from the household sector in Slovakia.
Projections of greenhouse gas emissions
Emission projections from household combustion were modelled as part of the First Biennial Transparency Report (BTR). The calculations took into account improvements in efficiency, condition, and the structure of heating equipment.
The WEM scenario assumes a significant reduction in solid fossil fuel consumption and a balanced trend in gas consumption. These two factors stabilize greenhouse gas emissions up to 2030, with a slight decrease compared to 2022. In the WAM scenario, emissions decrease significantly by 2030 (-23.6%), mainly due to substantial heating savings resulting from investments in insulation and more efficient equipment. The WAM scenario anticipates a decline in natural gas consumption (-19.7%) and solid fuels (-76.1%).
After 2030, the share of heat pumps in household heating is expected to increase, leading to partial reductions in final energy consumption. In the WAM scenario, these savings will be strongly supported by investments in improving the thermal insulation of buildings. Final energy consumption for heating and hot water (excluding electricity use) in the household sector is projected to fall by 45% in the WEM scenario and by 70% in the WAM scenario between 2030 and 2050.
Due to decarbonization in the WAM scenario, a substantial shift away from natural gas is expected, with gradual replacement by biogas, hydrogen, and synthetic gas blends. In the WEM scenario, the share of natural gas also decreases significantly, mainly in favor of electricity. As heating becomes increasingly electrified—particularly through the use of heat pumps—biomass consumption is expected to decline in both scenarios between 2030 and 2050.