Industry

Greenhouse gas emission projections in the IPPU sector

The analysis of GHG emission projections from industrial processes in Slovakia was carried out using two scenarios: "With Existing Measures" (WEM) and "With Additional Measures" (WAM). The aim was to predict the development of emissions in key industrial sectors with regard to current and potential future measures.

Steel industry: This sector has a dominant influence on the overall trends in emissions from industrial processes in Slovakia. The WEM scenario predicts a slight decrease in emissions, primarily due to expected technological progress and efficiency gains. However, due to inherent limits to emission reductions in some metallurgical processes, the overall decrease in this scenario is limited. The WAM scenario, on the other hand, assumes the implementation of extensive measures leading to significant emission reductions. The key measure in the WAM scenario is the modernization of the U.S. Steel Košice, which includes the replacement of two blast furnaces with two electric arc furnaces (EAFs) and continuous casting and rolling facilities after 2026. This change will bring a significant increase in the consumption of scrap iron, natural gas and electricity, compensating for the decrease in coke oven gas and blast furnace gas production. This modernization is expected to lead to a reduction of approximately 60% in CO₂ emissions.

Minerals industry (cement industry): In this sector, the WAM scenario considers replacing traditional raw materials (limestone, clay sand) with alternative sources with a higher content of calcium oxide (CaO), Al-Fe-Si oxides and SiO₂. This change should reduce the energy intensity of firing, save natural resources and reduce emissions, including CO₂ emissions, which arise from the thermal decomposition of limestone. Specifically, it is expected to reduce limestone consumption by replacing it with alternative materials. In this sector, the WAM scenario expects a certain stabilization of emissions, while the overall trend should be downward thanks to political measures and technological innovations.

Chemical industry: In this sector, emissions are assumed to remain relatively constant in both scenarios (WEM and WAM) without significant decline. No closures of existing chemical facilities are currently planned.

Glass and other non-metallurgical products industry: In this sector, consumption is not expected to decline significantly by 2050 in either scenario. Emissions are expected to be reduced through increased glass recycling, which should reduce the energy intensity of production. Glass manufacturers do not yet plan to significantly expand existing lines for sorting and processing recycled glass.

General assumptions and methodology: The analysis takes into account the lifetime of equipment, the availability of input materials and the development of GDP. Emissions from industrial processes are calculated based on the amount of produced product and emission factors that express the amount of greenhouse gases released during the production of a specific amount of product. The yield factor is also taken into account. The largest decrease in emissions in the IPPU sector (industrial processes and product use) is expected primarily due to a reduction in production, but emissions are also expected to decrease through modernization and emission capture.

In conclusion, the WAM scenario, with the implementation of additional measures, predicts a more significant reduction in emissions from industrial processes in Slovakia, mainly due to the modernization of the steel industry and changes in the raw material base of the cement industry. In other sectors, a more stable development with smaller changes in emissions is expected.

The projections of ESR emissions in categories 2.A-2.G were mainly prepared by forecasting the development of value added for the identified industrial category under one scenario WEM = WAM. In the absence of relevant direct policies and measures in these sectors, it is very difficult to predict developments up to 2050. It is likely to be influenced only by the availability of raw materials, energy and material prices, and supply and demand. We foresee regulation mainly at EU level. The nature of process (technological) emissions does not allow much room for manoeuvre for their regulation (they are dependent on chemical reactions and processes). Therefore, no reduction in emissions can be expected with increasing production. The development of emissions strongly depends on production.

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) has not been considered a realistic measure under Slovak conditions. The main current barriers include the need to prove that geological storage is fully safe and permanent, the need for international regulatory frameworks, potential issues with public acceptance, high investment and operating costs, and the absence of specific policies (incentives) to reduce emissions through CCS. The Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) alone is insufficient to support CCS, because the current CO₂ price is too low to offset the high costs and financial risks in most CCS applications.

Air pollutant emission projections in the IPPU sector

The analysis of air pollutant emission projections from industrial processes in Slovakia was carried out using two scenarios: "With Existing Measures" (WEM) and "With Additional Measures" (WAM). The aim was to predict the development of emissions in key industrial sectors with regard to current and potential future measures.

The projections of NOx emissions in the IPPU sector are mainly influenced by EU ETS emissions from metal production together with the chemical industry and have a decreasing trend in both scenarios. The projections of NMVOC emissions in the IPPU sector come mainly from paint applications, domestic solvent use and degreasing. The food and beverage industry has also a significant impact. The trends in the WEM and WAM scenarios are relatively stable and a slight decrease is expected, consistent with the use of best available techniques (BAT). The projections of SOx emissions in the IPPU sector are mainly influenced by emissions from metal production as well as the chemical industry. In the WAM scenario, a significant decrease in SOx emissions from fuel refining is expected due to a reduction in oil processing which is in line with the decarbonisation trajectories of the transport sector. The projections for NH₃ emissions in the IPPU sector are generally negligible, with the largest contribution coming from the chemical industry, mainly from the production of nitric acid and calcium carbide. Projections of PM_2.5 emissions in the IPPU sector are relatively stable.

Greenhouse gas emission projections in the IPPU sector in the EU ETS and the EU ESR

Greenhouse gas emissions are accounted for separately for categories and sources included in the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS 1) and for categories and sources mitigated under the Effort Sharing Regulation (EU ESR). The following chart shows emission trends under the respective legislative measures.