Projections of emissions and removals of greenhouse gases and air pollutants from the land, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector are balanced until 2055. More information on projections of emissions and removals from the LULUCF sector in Slovakia.
Afforestation and grassing are key factors in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Soil organic carbon is essential for soil quality and affects climate-related processes. Its levels in Slovakia are stable but low. Average organic carbon content in Slovak arable soils ranges from 1–2%. Carbon losses stem from intensive tillage, heavy use of mineral fertilizers, insufficient use of organic fertilizers, poor crop rotations, and other unsuitable land-use practices. Total soil organic carbon stocks in Slovakia are around 109.2 Mt. The average organic carbon content in agricultural soils is 22.1 g/kg. Slovakia ranks among the countries with lower average organic carbon levels in agricultural land, similar to Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary.
Carbon stocks in forests — in living biomass (above- and below-ground), deadwood, litter, and forest soil — total 504.9 Mt, with the largest share in soil (270.5 Mt) and above-ground biomass (162.49 Mt), which is a fundamentally larger amount.
On 14 July 2021, the European Commission published an ambitious package aimed at achieving EU climate neutrality by 2050. Increasing land-based carbon sinks (LULUCF), which cover mainly greenhouse gas removals from land use, is one of the key tools. Within the proposed measures, Slovakia’s 2030 carbon-sink target was revised. The Commission proposes a more ambitious sink target to reverse the declining trend. For Slovakia, this means a binding target of 6.8 Mt CO₂-eq, which may be achievable despite the age structure of Slovak forests.
The idea of creating a new AFOLU sector after 2030 was one of the options Slovakia viewed positively. Now, based on submitted documents and impact assessments, it will be necessary to evaluate how such an expanded system would affect national conditions.
New supports for changes in forest management and additional options for accounting harvested wood products (HWP) — intended to enable new business models (wood as construction material, fibers/polymers) — will be implemented gradually by 2030. This will be linked to upcoming EC initiatives such as carbon farming and carbon-sink certification. Slovak soils, especially in areas of intensive agriculture, lack organic carbon in soils, which has a negative impact on the ability of the soil to bind water, nutrients, compaction, or soil washing and creating conditions for the life of soil microflora, which will subsequently cause the inability or very limited ability of the soil to bind CO2.
Emission and sink projections for the LULUCF sector were prepared under WEM and WAM scenarios.
The WEM scenario includes measures adopted up to 2022. It projects a 74% decline in greenhouse gas sinks compared to 1990. WEM reflects policies and measures from official national strategic documents and programs valid in Slovakia up to 2022, particularly the National Forest Programme 2014–2020, Rural Development Programmes 2007–2013 and 2014–2020, and the Low-Carbon Development Strategy to 2030 with a 2050 outlook.
The WAM scenario covers measures from strategic documents and programs valid after 2022, including the Environmental Policy Strategy 2030. With additional measures implemented, WAM projects a 35% decrease in sinks compared to 1990.
Sink levels will be lower in both scenarios also relative to 2005, when CO₂ removals in the LULUCF sector were at a historic minimum due to the major windstorm in the High Tatras.