Projections of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions from the transport sector are accounted for up to 2050.
Greenhouse gas emission projections in transport
Projections for transport GHG emissions indicate that, under the "With Existing Measures" (WEM) scenario, emissions will peak slightly in the short term, then gradually decline, reaching about one-third below 1990 levels by 2050. This is mainly due to ongoing modernisation of internal combustion engines (especially in passenger and light commercial vehicles), wider adoption of electric powertrains, and partial changes in fuel mix. Under the "With Additional Measures" (WAM) scenario, a sharper decline begins after 2025, with potential reductions of up to 70% by 2050 compared to 1990.
Diesel remains the dominant fuel in these trends, with slower adoption of zero-emission technologies maintaining its share in the emissions profile. Electrification and biofuels are growing, but without a faster transition of vehicle fleets and charging infrastructure expansion, diesel will remain a major contributor for several decades.
Key measures in the WAM scenario include:
- Expansion of electromobility, especially for passenger and light commercial vehicles
- Introduction of low-emission zones and urban regulations
- Infrastructure support for charging and alternative fuels
- Gradual transition of freight transport to lower-emission technologies, including hydrogen and battery solutions
- Modernisation of public transport and promotion of modal shift
- Efficient logistics solutions to reduce trips and optimize goods movement
Greenhouse gas emission projections in transport
Air pollutant emission projections in transport
Pollutant projections indicate an overall decline across all categories, with the sharpest reductions in NOₓ and exhaust PM. Non-exhaust PM and NMVOC decline more slowly. The decrease is largely driven by technological improvements and fleet modernisation, although additional measures are needed for significant improvements.
NOₓ: A gradual decline is projected in the WEM scenario, with a 20–30% reduction by 2050. This is due to diesel vehicle replacement, improved engine technology, and widespread use of SCR systems. Under WAM, reductions may exceed 50%.
NMVOC: Mainly from gasoline combustion and evaporation, NMVOC emissions are expected to fall by about one-third under WEM, and up to half under WAM.
PM₂.₅/PM₁₀/TSP: Non-exhaust sources (e.g., tire and brake wear) remain the main contributors and decline only slightly. Exhaust PM from diesel falls more rapidly due to effective particulate filters. Overall, a more than 50% reduction by 2050 is expected, with WAM potentially reaching two-thirds.
SOₓ: Sulphur dioxide emissions are already low due to fuel sulphur content regulations and will decline slightly with more alternative fuels and electrification.
NH₃: Ammonia emissions from transport are negligible and stable, mainly from diesel combustion, with limited relevance compared to agriculture.
BC (Black Carbon): A component of fine particles, BC mainly comes from older diesel vehicles without filters. Projections show significant decline due to cleaner fleets and zero-emission vehicles, especially under the WAM scenario.
Regardless of transport type (road, rail, shipping, aviation), growing traffic volumes are expected to be offset by technological advances. However, achieving ambitious targets will require new policies and faster fleet turnover.
Key WAM scenario measures include:
- Expanding electromobility
- Implementing urban low-emission zones
- Supporting infrastructure for charging and alternative fuels
- Transitioning freight to low-emission options (e.g., hydrogen, batteries)
- Modernising public transport and encouraging modal shift
- Introducing smart logistics to reduce trips and improve efficiency