Projections of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions from the waste sector are accounted for up to 2050.
Greenhouse gas emission projections in the waste sector
Since 2022, the waste sector has shown an overall decreasing trend in greenhouse gas emissions. This development reflects positive changes in waste management practices—particularly the gradual reduction of landfilling, modernization of infrastructure, and the introduction of more efficient technologies in waste collection, processing, and treatment. The most significant decrease is expected in methane emissions.
Methane emissions from landfills had long shown an upward trend, mainly due to the increasing volume of landfilled waste and the transition to controlled anaerobic landfills. However, this trend has gradually reversed as the amount of biodegradable waste sent to landfills has decreased. As a result, emissions began to decline—a trend that is expected to continue in the future. The decreasing trajectory is likely to be reinforced by further restrictions on landfilling, expansion of separate waste collection, and increased rates of energy and material recovery from waste.
Greenhouse gas emissions from the biological treatment of solid waste—especially composting and aerobic processing—are on the rise. This increase is associated with the growing volume of biodegradable waste being diverted from landfills to biological treatment. Despite the rise in emissions in this category, it represents a more environmentally sustainable method of waste processing compared to landfilling.
In the area of wastewater treatment, a positive development is anticipated thanks to the expansion of sewer networks and the construction or modernization of wastewater treatment plants. National and EU funding plays a key role in enabling municipalities and operators to carry out large-scale infrastructure investments. As a result, gradual reductions in methane and nitrous oxide emissions are expected.
Waste in Gg CO₂ eq.
Air pollutant emission projections in the waste sector
Projections of air pollutants in the waste management sector are prepared for non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), ammonia (NH₃), sulphur oxides (SOₓ), nitrogen oxides (NOₓ), and fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅), with the sector representing a significant source particularly of NMVOC and ammonia. The emission trends of air pollutants vary depending on the specific substance and the projection scenario used – in some cases, a decreasing trend can be observed, while in others, emissions may increase or fluctuate. These differences result from varying assumptions regarding technological measures, changes in waste management practices, and environmental policies, which may be reflected differently in each scenario’s projected emission development.