Projections of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions from the energy sector are accounted for up to 2050 under two scenarios: WAM (With Additional Measures) and WEM (With Existing Measures).
Greenhouse gas emission projections in the energy sector
Projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the energy sector have been modeled separately for large and medium-sized energy facilities, household categories, and others. The scenario calculations in the projection report are based on the national greenhouse gas inventory. The projection calculation is based on inputs/outputs from the CPS model calculations by the Institute of Environmental Policy (IEP) and is consistent with the prepared National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP).
Overall Trend and Scenarios (WAM vs. WEM):
According to projections, greenhouse gas emissions in Slovakia will continue to decline from 2025 to 2035 across all sectors, especially in the more ambitious WAM scenario (with additional measures). The most significant decrease, both absolutely and relatively, is expected in the electricity and heat production sector. This decline is driven by the anticipated increase in solar and wind energy capacity by 2035. This occurs despite the expected rise in electricity demand (especially in households and services), which is more pronounced in the WAM scenario. The WEM scenario (with existing measures) uses a less ambitious electrification assumption from SEPS. Both scenarios account for the commissioning of the fourth block of the Mochovce nuclear power plant (Mochovce IV).
Goals for 2030 and 2040:
The WAM scenario would lead to a 60% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990, exceeding the target of a 55% reduction. The WEM scenario anticipates a 52% reduction, which could mean missing the 55% target. Further reductions in emissions are expected by 2040; however, currently, there is only a limited number of specific policies that would ensure significant reductions beyond 2035. The European Commission proposed an EU target to reduce net emissions by 90% by 2040 (compared to 1990) in February 2024, but a final decision at the EU level has not yet been made.
Key Measures to Achieve Targets:
The short-term target (-55% by 2030) could be achieved mainly through measures such as:
- Electrification of steelworks – installation of electric arc furnaces.
- Development of electro-mobility (transport sector).
- Insulation of buildings and increasing their energy efficiency.
- Electrification of industry, households, and services.
- The closure of coal power plants in Nováky and Vojany and the commissioning of the third block of the Mochovce nuclear power plant have already contributed to a cleaner energy mix. The commissioning of the fourth block is also expected in 2027.
- Implementation of an emissions trading system (ETS 2) for the construction and transport sectors starting in 2027 (with an estimated price of around €59/ton in 2030).
The energy industry (1.A.1) and industrial energy (1.A.2) are, along with transportation, the main sources of emissions in the energy sector. In category 1.A.1, the planned phase-out of fossil fuel (coal) production and the transition to natural gas, biomass, and other alternatives are evident. Reducing emissions in 1.A.2 is more challenging because energy production is linked to production technology (requiring complex and costly changes). Therefore, the WEM scenario accounts for only a slight decrease (also due to the anticipated growth in production), while the WAM scenario predicts a more significant decrease due to the replacement of fossil fuels and changes in technology. Emissions from combustion in the services and household sector are shown separately.
Energy in Gg of CO₂ eq.
Air pollutants emission projections in the energy sector
Projections of air pollutants (AP) emissions in the energy sector include emissions from combustion plants as point sources. The emissions considered in this activity are released through a controlled combustion process (emissions from boilers, emissions from furnaces, emissions from gas turbines, or stationary engines) and are characterized mainly by the types of fuels used. Based on available data from the national emissions inventory, updated projections of emissions trends for 2030 and 2050 have been prepared using models and tools for emission projections. Existing (valid, adopted) policies and measures that have been implemented so far have been included in the projections. Here, we discuss the scenario with measures, or more precisely, with existing measures (WM scenario - with measures) and with additional measures – WAM.
Emission reductions are visible in all sectors (1A), as well as for pollutants. This reduction aligns with Slovakia's National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), and the NAPCP exceeds EU targets. Key factors include the gradual phase-out of coal, electrification of industry, and the expansion of the EU emissions trading system (ETS 2) to buildings/transport (2027). Emissions in the energy sector – combustion of fuels mainly come from the energy industry (electricity and heat production), the manufacturing industry, fuel transport by pipeline, and other energy sectors. The most significant sources of emissions are from electricity and heat production, oil refineries, and iron and steel production. Emissions from road, rail, air, and maritime transport are reported separately in the subsection below. As can be seen, both scenarios include a decarbonization measure known as the gradual phase-out of solid fossil fuels in the largest Slovak thermal power plants in Vojany and Nováky, leading to a significant reduction in SOx, NOx, or TSP emissions in category 1A1(a). The closure of coal power plants in Nováky (2023) and Vojany (2024) eliminated 98% of SOx emissions and 74% of PM emissions from category 1A1(a).
Pollutant emissions in the WAM scenario are expected to decrease across all sectors between 2025 and 2035, with the most significant reduction anticipated in the electricity and heat sector. These declines result from increased capacity of renewable energy sources (solar, wind) and stricter pollution controls. The WEM scenario applies a less ambitious electrification pathway (based on SEPS data), although both scenarios anticipate the commissioning of the MOCHOVCE IV nuclear reactor. By 2030, a 52% reduction in NOx emissions is expected compared to 2005. Emissions of NMVOC are projected to decrease by 45%, SOx by 93%, NH3 by 30%, and PM 2.5 by 65% in the baseline scenario – WEM, while in the WAM scenario, the reductions are as follows: NOx by 59%, NMVOC by 50%, SOx by 95%, NH3 by 39%, and PM 2.5 by 69%. Slovakia's national air pollution reduction targets are fully met only within the WAM pathway. Further reductions are expected after 2035, but limited political frameworks currently detail how significant reductions will be achieved by 2040.
Energy in kilotons
Greenhouse gas emission projections in the energy sector in the EU ETS and the EU ESR
Emissions in the energy sector are expected to decrease, primarily due to the shutdown of coal-fired power plants, the replacement with units from the Mochovce Nuclear Power Plant 3 & 4, and increased use of biomass and alternative fuels. The most significant sectors in the EU ETS include emissions from electricity and heat production, oil refineries, and iron and steel manufacturing, where the most substantial reductions are also anticipated. EU ETS emissions have decreased by an average of 30% since 2005. The reduction in the refinery sector is primarily attributed to the decline in the share of fossil fuels in the transport sector, as projected by the COPERT model (see the Transport section). Other planned measures in the energy sector include the decommissioning of the coke battery (category 1.A.2) and the replacement of coal used for producing process steam and electricity with natural gas. Further efforts for decarbonization in the ETS included efficiency improvements in various divisions of the facilities. Slovakia plans to focus more on energy efficiency in industry and related services, including energy production and consumption.
Emissions in the energy sector (outside of ETS) mainly come from household heating (1.A.4) and transport. A decrease is also anticipated here, primarily due to the replacement of fossil fuels in the fuel mix and a shift from fossil fuels to electromobility in transport. Categories 1.A.1 and 1.A.2 have a smaller share, which, through conventional measures such as increasing the share of biomass and later hydrogen, reach their maximum potential for reducing GHG emissions. It is important to note that the EU ESR category is more challenging to regulate than the ETS, making GHG emissions reduction more difficult. An important trend observed in recent years is the shift in the ratio of emissions regulated under the EU ETS, which no longer represent a majority. The outflow of emissions from the EU ETS is caused by several factors, including changes in the scope of the directive applied to individual operations (such as the inclusion of aviation in 2012 and the expansion of activities in 2013), the rising cost of emission allowances, a decrease in free allowances, and, last but not least, the strategic splitting of larger companies into smaller ones to avoid falling under the EU ETS system.