Projections of greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants are modelled until 2050 in 5-year intervals. They determine the expected trends in the development of the emissions for the correct implementation of policies and measures. More information on emission projections in Slovakia.
Emission projection
Forecasts (projections) of emissions of greenhouse gases and pollutants are updated every two years on March 15. The emission forecasts are based on the base year, which is usually the last verified year of emission inventories, are reported until 2050 after 5-year intervals and are published in two scenarios.
The following graph shows the total projections of greenhouse gas emissions with and without captures in LULUCF and pollutants in two scenarios (WEM and WAM). Data for greenhouse gases are converted to GWP according to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.
Total GHG in Gg of CO₂ eq.
One of the important tools of an effective environmental policy in the field of global climate protection and air quality assurance is the correct setting of policies and measures. Emission projections are the basis for decision-making. They serve to evaluate the effects of proposed policies and measures on the national emission balance. Emission projections are not a prediction or a forecast of what will happen, but serve as a tool for estimating what should happen if certain measures are applied (WEM scenario = Scenario with existing measures). Alternatively, what will happen if these measures are not applied (WOM scenario = Scenario without measures).
When emission projections are modelled, the assumption of the development of parameters from the economic, industrial, socio-economic or demographic area are used. Projections of these parameters are important for credibility of results. They are activity sources for international and national macroeconomic or demographic models.
The latest emission projections t were published in 2023. They were modelled according to two scenarios - the Scenario with Measures (WEM) and the Scenario with Additional Measures (WAM). The WEM scenario contains approved legislation and measures to reduce emissions. In addition, the WAM scenario contains further, additional plant measures envisaged that are likely to be needed to sufficiently reduce emissions and achieve the mitigation targets.
Total Emissions in kt
The base year for emission projections was 2019, this year was not distorted by the covid period. The projected trend of greenhouse gas emissions until 2050 has only a slightly decreasing trend in the WEM scenario after 2025, and the reduction of emissions according to this scenario is insufficient. Additional measures will be needed in individual sectors that are included in the WAM scenario. In this scenario, emissions fall more significantly, but it will take a lot of effort to stay on the trajectory of the desired emissions decline and achieve carbon neutrality.
The following graph shows a comparison of emission trends by individual sector according to the WEM and WAM scenarios.
Total GHG by sectors and scenarios in Gg of CO₂ eq.
Total Emissions by Sectors in kt
An important indicator of the future development of the trend of greenhouse gas emission projections is their tracking by sector and by allocation in the emission quota trading system [EU ETS - 2003/87/EC] and in the system regulated by the regulation on joint efforts to reduce emissions [ESR - 842/2018]. . Projections of emissions and removals in the LULUCF sector are regulated in the Regulation (EU) on LULUCF [841/2018]. The following graph shows the distribution of emissions in the EU ETS and ESR regime according to the WEM and WAM scenarios.