Projections of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions are prepared until 2055 at 5-year intervals. They serve to determine the expected trends in the development of the emissions, for the correct setting of policies and measures. More information on emission projections in Slovakia.
Emission projection
One of the key instruments of an effective environmental policy in the area of global climate protection and air quality management is the proper design and implementation of policies and measures. Emission projections are the basis for decision-making. They serve to assess the impacts of proposed policies and measures on the national emission balance. Emission projections are not a prediction or prognosis of what will happen, but they serve as a tool for estimating what should happen if certain measures are applied (WEM scenario = Scenario with existing measures) and if additional measures are applied as planned (WAM scenario = Scenario with additional measures). Alternatively, what will happen if these measures are not applied (WOM scenario = Scenario without measures).
Projections of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions are updated every two years by March 15. Emission projections are based on the base year, which is usually the last verified year of emission inventories. Projections are reported until 2055 at 5-year intervals and are published in at least two scenarios (WEM and WAM).
When calculating emission projections, assumptions are made about the development of parameters from the economic, industrial, socio-economic or demographic spheres. Projections of these parameters are important for credibility, and their sources are international and national macroeconomic or demographic models.eport.
Total GHG in Gg of CO₂ eq.
The latest available projections of greenhouse gas emissions show a decline in emissions, reflecting the successful implementation of policies and measures and their impact on improving the energy intensity and efficiency of industrial production. These emission projections are consistent with the First Biennial Transparency Report (submitted in December 2024). New drivers and parameters reflecting the current economic situation have been projected.
The emission projections published in 2025 in the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections Report and the first Biennial Transparency Report were prepared under two scenarios – the WEM Scenario and the WAM Scenario. The WEM Scenario includes approved legislation and emission reduction measures. The WAM Scenario also includes the additional measures that are likely to be needed to sufficiently reduce emissions and achieve the targets.
The base year for the emission projections was 2022. The projected trend in greenhouse gas emissions to 2055 in the WEM scenario has only a slightly decreasing trend after 2025, and the emission reductions under this scenario are insufficient. Additional measures will be needed in individual sectors, which are included in the WAM scenario. In this scenario, emissions decrease more significantly, but it will require a major effort to stay on the desired emission reduction trajectory and achieve carbon neutrality.
Total GHG by sectors and scenarios in Gg of CO₂ eq.
Slovakia plans to significantly reduce its total emissions by 2050, with two key scenarios: WEM (with existing measures) and WAM (with additional measures). The WEM scenario assumes a gradual decrease in emissions by around 30% by 2050 (to 45.5% of the original level), while the more ambitious WAM scenario expects a decrease of over 67% (to 37.7%). The largest reduction is expected in the energy sector, thanks to the shutdown of coal-fired power plants and the transition to biomass, natural gas and electrification. In the transport sector, emissions in the WEM scenario are reduced by around 30% by 2050, while in the WAM scenario by up to 74%, mainly due to electrification. The IPPU sector (industrial processes and product use) will remain relatively stable. Chemical production reduces N2O emissions thanks to new catalysts, and the use of green hydrogen is also being considered. NMVOC emissions from solvent use are expected to decrease slightly, even as demand for HFC and SF6 gases increases. In agriculture, emissions are expected to decrease slightly in the WAM (by 33%), while their share in total emissions will increase. The LULUCF sector (land use, land use change and forestry), which acts as a carbon sink, will improve its carbon sequestration capacity in the WAM scenario, while it will decrease slightly in the WEM. Emissions from waste are expected to decrease by 20% in the WEM and by 35% in the WAM.
Total Emissions in kt
Slovakia assumes significant reductions in air pollutant emissions under two scenarios: WEM (With Existing Measures) and WAM (With Additional Measures). While WEM represents a gradual decrease thanks to current measures, WAM is more ambitious and aims for more significant reductions, and only this scenario fully meets Slovakia's national targets. More detailed information can be found in the sectoral projections.
Total Emissions by Sectors in kt
Energy is a key sector for reducing air pollutants emissions. A large reduction in emissions is expected between 2025 and 2035, mainly due to the increase in renewable energy sources (solar, wind) and stricter air pollution controls. By 2030, SOx emissions could fall by 95%, PM2.5 by 69% and NOx by 59% compared to 2005 in the WAM scenario.
In transport, a continuous decrease in NOx emissions is expected, mainly due to the modernization of the vehicle fleet (EURO 6 D/E and EURO 7). The WAM scenario assumes a greater diversification of fuels and a substantial reduction in emissions by 2050, where PM2.5 emissions from wear (tires and brakes) would be 50% lower than in the WEM. NMVOC emissions from road transport, primarily from gasoline evaporation and passenger cars, will decrease significantly due to electrification. SOx emissions from transport have already decreased significantly after 2005 due to the ban on high-sulfur fuels and are expected to decrease further in the future, with WAM already in 2025.
Significant efforts are underway in industry to reduce emissions. In metallurgy and iron and steel production, SOx and CO reductions are expected due to the phase-out of coke oven batteries and the reduction of oil processing. The production of mineral products, especially cement, which is a significant source of PM, NOx, SOx and NMVOC, will improve through the use of alternative fuels (biomass) and advanced filtration systems, which could lead to a 30-35% reduction in emissions in the WAM scenario. Other industrial processes, such as wood processing and the food industry, show a decreasing trend in PM and NH3 emissions.
Agriculture is the main source of ammonia (90%), mainly from agricultural soils. NOx emissions from agriculture are increasing due to increased use of nitrogen fertilizers, but are not significant overall. PM2.5, PM10 and TSP emissions from agricultural soils are decreasing due to the reduction of areas of certain crops. There are no specific reduction policies for either NOx or PM emissions from agriculture. Emissions from waste management do not have a major impact on total emissions, with a significant contribution of NMVOC and NH3.
Total GHG in EU ETS and ESR in Gg of CO₂ eq.
An important indicator of the future development of the trend of greenhouse gas emission projections is their tracking by sector and by allocation in the emission quota trading system [EU ETS - 2003/87/EC] and in the system regulated by the regulation on joint efforts to reduce emissions [ESR - 842/2018]. . Projections of emissions and removals in the LULUCF sector are regulated in the Regulation (EU) on LULUCF [841/2018]. The following graph shows the distribution of emissions in the EU ETS and ESR regime according to the WEM and WAM scenarios.